Turkey economy: prepared for EC talks?
Turkey has been shocasing the strength of its own ecomony, in preparation for key European Entry talks on December 17th – at a time when a Germany is persuading the European Commission that stringent economic rules it once advocated, cannot be sustained by a flagging German economy.
Turkish finance ministers have insisted that they are running a country whose economy is ever becoming stronger and healthier. In media reports, they point to:
- Economic growth is strong
- Education levels fast rising
- Inflation is well under control
- Unemployment near single figures
- New laws approaching legislation for mainstreaming banking practices
- Government spending frozen
- Income and corporate taxes cut next year to attract foreign investment
- IMF loan restructuring deal almost complete
- Free-floating currency
- Independent central bank
The country’s State Planning Organisation suggests that Turkey could deliver 6 billion Euro’s per year by 2014. And with a constant gross domestic output (GDP) is expected to stay around 6%, this would leave Turkey contributing around 9 billion Euros to the European Union by 2020.
The Euopean Union’s own impact assessment pretty much agrees that in the long run, Turkish entry will benefit the EC. However, vast initial costs are expected at first, ranging anywhere between 16-34 billion Euros over the first couple years, which would be covered by agricultural subsidies and regional aid.
Critics of Turkey’s entry have also pointed out that it’s debt is double the GDP of most other countries, in terms of percentage gross domestic product. This makes even the IMF suggest that the Turkish economy still remains vulnerable.
Either way, talks begin on December 17th, to see whether pan-European reservations can still a process that has been gaining its own momentum for some years now. The United States of America has been keen to push Britain’s hand into allowing Turkish membership, envisaging a prosperous democrative Muslim country as a stablishing factor on the Middle East.
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