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Economic growth predicts for 2005

The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) has released its annual report for 2005, and underlines the contribution new member states will make to the European economy.

Growth in Europe has already slowed, with the German economy threatened with recession, after reporting no economic growth since July 2004.

Growth in the UK is also expected to slow, from 3.2% last year to 2.5% this year. And although France enjoyed brsk growth of 2.3% in the last quarter of 2004, there is no expectation of that being maintained into 2005 due to lack of consumer savings.

The high value of the euro is also a concern, as that impacts exports, when Europe is already an export-driven economy.

In 2005 UNECE expects eurozone countries to achieve only around 1.9% growth, but overall growth in Europe of 2.2% due to the strength of growth in new economies. Slovenia and the Czech Republic have especially been indicated as strong economies that will help push European economic growth over 2005.

Scotland to repay millions in EU grant aid?

Widespread mismanagement of EU grants for developments in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland means that millions in grants may have to be repaid to Brussells.

A European Commission audit looked at 14 projects funded by the European aid programme between 1994 and 1999, and every single project failed on its initial assessment.

In its first report, it details serious deficiencies the management and monitoring of the projects. If a second report sustains the criticisms, then as much as £21 million in grants could be decommitted and repaid back to the European Regional Development Fund.

Highlands and Islands Enterprise, responsible for 4 of the projects, is currently under investigation.

ECB: interest rates still frozen

For the twentieth month in succession the cost of borrowing on the euro has remained fixed at 2%.

The European Central Bank ( ECB ) announced the move today, and offered no surprise to the finance markets.

Although concerns about slow Eurozone economic growth, and poor unemployment levels in some countries, not least Germany, there economic indicators suggest there could be room for modest rate rises on the coming months.

However, concerns still exist about the devalued US dollar, and any changes in the ECB rates may have to be tallied more directly with changes in the US rates, which today rose a quarter percentile.

5 million Germans unemployed

In a move that is a psychological blow to the German economy, the country’s jobless figures rose above 5 million for the first time since 1930.

Although recent changes were made to how the figures were compiled, effectively adding an extra half a million to the total, it still represents an embarrassing unemployment total of 12.1%.

The figures add to Germany’s economic discomfort, with recession threats and unpopular social security and employment reforms. It is not at all unlikely that at further EC meetings, Germany might look to push for greater freedom from the ECB so long as it keeps inflation under control.